Data indicating COVID-19 could begin to decline
Lakeridge Health Chief of Staff Dr. Tony Stone says the COVID-19 curve may begin flattening soon, as numbers in Oshawa have peaked, according to Lakeridge’s forecast model.
By Chris Jones/The Oshawa Express
As the number of COVID-19 cases in Durham continues to climb, Dr. Tony Stone of Lakeridge Health says the curve might begin flattening soon.
Stone, the chief of staff at Lakeridge Health Oshawa, says, from a hospital perspective, they expect to see a decline in the number of cases of COVID-19.
“We have a forecast model where we superimpose real time data… and this clearly shows we hit our peak in terms of admissions to the hospital around April 2,” explains Stone. “We were on a plateau for about a week, and then, in the last, I want to say week, the number of cases in the hospital has been very slowly declining.”
He says this is the trend seen so far, but “we aren’t out of the woods.”
In Durham Region there have been 621 cases of COVID-19, with Oshawa now having the third most number of cases with 119, just behind Ajax (164) and Pickering (208), according to the Durham Region website.
Stone explains the number of in-patient activity is a proxy for the amount of activity in the region.
“The challenge with that is that we don’t have widely available testing yet. You’ve heard [Premier Doug Ford] talk about it, that’s a good thing, we all want it but it isn’t available yet,” says Stone.
Stone explains right now high priority or high-risk groups are making their way to the front of the line.
“In an ideal world we would test everybody with a sniffle, everybody with a fever, we wouldn’t leave anybody out,” says Stone. “So, it’s always hard to be precise about how many cases we have in Durham exactly.”
He says it’s difficult to be precise about the number of cases in Durham Region, as the numbers seen on the region’s website are confirmed cases in Durham.
“But since we don’t test widely, experts would say you have to multiply that by at least five or 10, nobody can give an exact number,” he explains.
He also notes Ontario, which has seen 11,184 cases of COVID-19, and 584 deaths, may be about to plateau as well.
“It seems like our social distancing, and of the measures that have been recommended have had a significant impact,” he says. “We know that because if you look at forecast modelling, if we hadn’t done in Ontario and Canada what we did when we did it, we run the risk of looking more like Western Europe, more like parts of the United States where COVID ran rampant, nobody knew it was there.”
He explains if all of the right things, such as social distancing and self-isolation, aren’t done early, the risk of becoming like Western Europe, where the virus has been running rampant.
Stone says everyone needs to remember the COVID-19 is from coronavirus, which is spread by droplets and contact. Droplets are released when one breathes, and when people breathe out, the droplets are falling within a couple of feet, and maybe a cough or a sneeze will push it further.
“Let’s say you want to go out and get some fresh air, please do, go and get it,” says Stone. “There’s no reason that you can’t be outside exercising, enjoying fresh air, and doing stuff. You just need to maintain your social distancing because then you don’t have to worry about droplet exposure from others. It’s that simple.”